FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections

=Attendance Projections=

"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G.


 * Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.

Guesstimate
The formula (below) doesn't seem to be working out. The identified variables have no correlation to the number of attendees. The best solution would be, on a country-by-country basis, try to guess how many would come.

This table gives some "best guesstimates" on a per-country basis with justification. Note that the host country attendance (including the US for 2007) has been changed to the average of the other years.

Survey
An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.

Where

 * A = number of attendees from a country
 * P = population of a country
 * Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented.
 * I = Industrialization
 * GDP of the country
 * HDI may be a better measure... but...
 * Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI
 * Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI
 * 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation
 * D = Travel Cost Distance from country
 * Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using TravelMath
 * Price of airfare in local currency?
 * Effort in getting VISA?
 * E = Some unknown general economic factor
 * FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
 * DJIA?

Will this work for States within the USA? Assumes consistency across countries
 * Is there some factor for USA/CAN?

Correlating Factors

 * Economic Crisis

By Country

 * Population
 * Industrialization
 * GDP as proxy
 * Distance
 * Local vs. Distant
 * What is "local"?
 * Number of Code Contributors
 * Which projects?
 * Should most countries be "ignored"?
 * "Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
 * "Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
 * "Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
 * Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%

By Region

 * Distance
 * Industrialization
 * Oddly, Europe

Venue
One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.

In Denver, there are several prospective venues:


 * Colorado Convention Center
 * Largest space: 5000 people
 * Near light rail
 * Denver Sheraton
 * Largest space: 3000 people
 * Near light rail
 * Denver Tech Center Marriott
 * Largest space: 1500 people
 * Near light rail
 * Denver Tech Center Hyatt Regency
 * Largest space: 1350 people
 * Near light rail
 * Denver Rennaissance
 * Largest space: 1200 people
 * Not near light rail
 * Sheraton Denver West
 * Largest space: 750 people
 * New light rail station won't be operational until 2013
 * Inverness Hotel and Conference Center
 * Largest space: 600 people
 * Near light rail

Sponsorship
Sponsors (and exhibitors) like to know how many people they are reaching by investing in the conference.