FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections

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Attendance Projections

"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G.

+ Past FOSS4G data
Year Country Local CAN USA Other Total
2006 Switzerland 156 37 52 320 565
2007 Canada 253 253 265 203 721
2008 South Africa 321 17 31 178 547
2009 Australia 218 24 28 166 436
2010 Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
  • Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.


Brain Storming

Guesstimate

The formula (below) doesn't seem to be working out. The identified variables have no correlation to the number of attendees. The best solution would be, on a country-by-country basis, try to guess how many would come.

This table gives some "best guesstimates" on a per-country basis with justification. Note that the host country attendance (including the US for 2007) has been changed to the average of the other years.

Country Population 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average Pessimist Optimist Guess Notes
USA 307212123 52 37 31 28 37 265 800 500 265 attended '07 in Canada.
CANADA 33487208 37 26 17 24 26 26 250 125 253 attended '07
SOUTH AFRICA 49052489 2 5 3 2 3 2 10 5 Need to carry energy from '08
AUSTRALIA 21262641 4 4 2 3 3.25 2 10 5 Similar to SA, carry energy
ITALY 58126212 54 21 17 12 26 12 25 18 France, Italy & Germany are strong supporters. How can we increase attendance?
FRANCE 64057792 43 18 16 9 21.5 10 20 15
JAPAN 127078679 8 11 7 15 10.25 8 25 18 Japan is same distance as Europe with large tech population.
GERMANY 82329758 50 11 11 13 21.25 11 20 15
SOUTH KOREA 48508972 0 11 0 17 7 10 25 20 SK is like Japan only hungrier
UNITED KINGDOM 61113205 20 15 9 6 12.5 10 25 15 Why is UK so under-represented?
SWITZERLAND 7604467 10.3 11 17 3 10.3 10 20 12
SPAIN 40525002 16 12 12 4 11 12 30 12 Should carry energy from 2010
NEW ZEALAND 4213418 0 3 1 25 7.25 1 15 2 Definite Kiwi interest. Need to bolster
NETHERLANDS 16715999 16 12 0 8 9 8 20 10 Why doesn't Dutch like SA?
NORWAY 4660539 8 6 10 4 7 4 15 7
BELGIUM 10414336 10 5 10 6 7.75 5 10 6
SWEDEN 9059651 3 4 9 7 5.75 4 12 6
BRAZIL 198739269 5 4 5 4 4.5 4 30 12 Brazil is another hungry hot spot
AUSTRIA 8210281 4 5 5 2 4 4 6 5
NAMIBIA 2108665 0 2 8 0 2.5 0 4 2
INDONESIA 240271522 1 3 3 3 2.5 1 3 2
ROMANIA 22215421 1 2 6 1 2.5 1 4 2
CZECH REPUBLIC 10211904 9 4 2 1 4 2 6 4
PORTUGAL 10707924 3 2 2 2 2.25 2 3 2
FINLAND 5250275 8 3 2 0 3.25 2 5 3
POLAND 38482919 1 2 3 0 1.5 1 3 2
CHINA 1338612968 0 3 0 2 1.25 0 25 10 China is big on Geospatial
NEW CALEDONIA 227436 0 0 0 4 1 0 4 2
TAIWAN 22974347 2 1 1 1 1.25 1 6 2
MEXICO 111211789 2 3 0 0 1.25 2 30 10 Mexico is very close and hungry
Totals 418 1431 839

Survey

An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.

Formula

A = ((P * I) / (D)) * 1/E

Where

  • A = number of attendees from a country
  • P = population of a country
    • Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented.
  • I = Industrialization
    • GDP of the country
    • HDI may be a better measure... but...
      • Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI
      • Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI
      • 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation
  • D = Travel Cost Distance from country
    • Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using TravelMath
    • Price of airfare in local currency?
    • Effort in getting VISA?
  • E = Some unknown general economic factor
    • FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
    • DJIA?

Will this work for States within the USA? Assumes consistency across countries

  • Is there some factor for USA/CAN?

Correlating Factors

  • Economic Crisis

By Country

  • Population
  • Industrialization
    • GDP as proxy
  • Distance
    • Local vs. Distant
    • What is "local"?
  • Number of Code Contributors
    • Which projects?
  • Should most countries be "ignored"?
    • "Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
    • "Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
    • "Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
  • Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%

By Region

  • Distance
  • Industrialization
  • Oddly, Europe

Venue

One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.

In Denver, there are several prospective venues:

Sponsorship

Sponsors (and exhibitors) like to know how many people they are reaching by investing in the conference.

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