Difference between revisions of "FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections"
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This table gives some "best guesstimates" on a per-country basis with justification. Note that the host country attendance (including the US for 2007) has been changed to the average of the other years. | This table gives some "best guesstimates" on a per-country basis with justification. Note that the host country attendance (including the US for 2007) has been changed to the average of the other years. | ||
| + | |||
{| border="1" | {| border="1" | ||
| − | !Country!!Population!!2006!!2007!!2008!!2009!! | + | !Country!!Population!!2006!!2007!!2008!!2009!!Average!!Pessimist!!Optimist!!Guess!!Notes |
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !USA | |
| + | |307212123||52||37||31||28||37||265||800||500||265 attended '07 in Canada. | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !CANADA | |
| + | |33487208||37||26||17||24||26||26||250||125||253 attended '07 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !SOUTH AFRICA | |
| + | |49052489||2||5||3||2||3||2||10||5||Need to carry energy from '08 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !AUSTRALIA | |
|21262641 | |21262641 | ||
|4 | |4 | ||
| Line 48: | Line 52: | ||
|Similar to SA, carry energy | |Similar to SA, carry energy | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !ITALY | |
|58126212 | |58126212 | ||
|54 | |54 | ||
| Line 60: | Line 64: | ||
|France, Italy & Germany are strong supporters. How can we increase attendance? | |France, Italy & Germany are strong supporters. How can we increase attendance? | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !FRANCE | |
|64057792 | |64057792 | ||
|43 | |43 | ||
| Line 71: | Line 75: | ||
|15 | |15 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !JAPAN | |
|127078679 | |127078679 | ||
|8 | |8 | ||
| Line 83: | Line 87: | ||
|Japan is same distance as Europe with large tech population. | |Japan is same distance as Europe with large tech population. | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !GERMANY | |
|82329758 | |82329758 | ||
|50 | |50 | ||
| Line 94: | Line 98: | ||
|15 | |15 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !SOUTH KOREA | |
|48508972 | |48508972 | ||
|0 | |0 | ||
| Line 106: | Line 110: | ||
|SK is like Japan only hungrier | |SK is like Japan only hungrier | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !UNITED KINGDOM | |
|61113205 | |61113205 | ||
|20 | |20 | ||
| Line 118: | Line 122: | ||
|Why is UK so under-represented? | |Why is UK so under-represented? | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !SWITZERLAND | |
|7604467 | |7604467 | ||
|10.3 | |10.3 | ||
| Line 129: | Line 133: | ||
|12 | |12 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !SPAIN | |
|40525002 | |40525002 | ||
|16 | |16 | ||
| Line 141: | Line 145: | ||
|Should carry energy from 2010 | |Should carry energy from 2010 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !NEW ZEALAND | |
|4213418 | |4213418 | ||
|0 | |0 | ||
| Line 153: | Line 157: | ||
|Definite Kiwi interest. Need to bolster | |Definite Kiwi interest. Need to bolster | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !NETHERLANDS | |
|16715999 | |16715999 | ||
|16 | |16 | ||
| Line 165: | Line 169: | ||
|Why doesn't Dutch like SA? | |Why doesn't Dutch like SA? | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !NORWAY | |
|4660539 | |4660539 | ||
|8 | |8 | ||
| Line 176: | Line 180: | ||
|7 | |7 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !BELGIUM | |
|10414336 | |10414336 | ||
|10 | |10 | ||
| Line 187: | Line 191: | ||
|6 | |6 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !SWEDEN | |
|9059651 | |9059651 | ||
|3 | |3 | ||
| Line 198: | Line 202: | ||
|6 | |6 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !BRAZIL | |
|198739269 | |198739269 | ||
|5 | |5 | ||
| Line 210: | Line 214: | ||
|Brazil is another hungry hot spot | |Brazil is another hungry hot spot | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !AUSTRIA | |
|8210281 | |8210281 | ||
|4 | |4 | ||
| Line 221: | Line 225: | ||
|5 | |5 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !NAMIBIA | |
|2108665 | |2108665 | ||
|0 | |0 | ||
| Line 232: | Line 236: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !INDONESIA | |
|240271522 | |240271522 | ||
|1 | |1 | ||
| Line 243: | Line 247: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !ROMANIA | |
|22215421 | |22215421 | ||
|1 | |1 | ||
| Line 254: | Line 258: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !CZECH REPUBLIC | |
|10211904 | |10211904 | ||
|9 | |9 | ||
| Line 265: | Line 269: | ||
|4 | |4 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !PORTUGAL | |
|10707924 | |10707924 | ||
|3 | |3 | ||
| Line 276: | Line 280: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !FINLAND | |
|5250275 | |5250275 | ||
|8 | |8 | ||
| Line 287: | Line 291: | ||
|3 | |3 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !POLAND | |
|38482919 | |38482919 | ||
|1 | |1 | ||
| Line 298: | Line 302: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !CHINA | |
|1338612968 | |1338612968 | ||
|0 | |0 | ||
| Line 310: | Line 314: | ||
|China is big on Geospatial | |China is big on Geospatial | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !NEW CALEDONIA | |
|227436 | |227436 | ||
|0 | |0 | ||
| Line 321: | Line 325: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !TAIWAN | |
|22974347 | |22974347 | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
| Line 332: | Line 336: | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | + | !MEXICO | |
|111211789 | |111211789 | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
| Line 344: | Line 348: | ||
|Mexico is very close and hungry | |Mexico is very close and hungry | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| − | | | + | !Totals||||||||||||!!418!!1431!!839 |
| − | | | ||
| − | | | ||
| − | | | ||
| − | | | ||
| − | | | ||
| − | | | ||
| − | | | ||
| − | |||
| − | |||
|---- | |---- | ||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 12:12, 4 June 2010
Attendance Projections
"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G.
| + Past FOSS4G data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Country | Local | CAN | USA | Other | Total |
| 2006 | Switzerland | 156 | 37 | 52 | 320 | 565 |
| 2007 | Canada | 253 | 253 | 265 | 203 | 721 |
| 2008 | South Africa | 321 | 17 | 31 | 178 | 547 |
| 2009 | Australia | 218 | 24 | 28 | 166 | 436 |
| 2010 | Spain | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
- Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.
Brain Storming
Guesstimate
The formula (below) doesn't seem to be working out. The identified variables have no correlation to the number of attendees. The best solution would be, on a country-by-country basis, try to guess how many would come.
This table gives some "best guesstimates" on a per-country basis with justification. Note that the host country attendance (including the US for 2007) has been changed to the average of the other years.
| Country | Population | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Average | Pessimist | Optimist | Guess | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 307212123 | 52 | 37 | 31 | 28 | 37 | 265 | 800 | 500 | 265 attended '07 in Canada. |
| CANADA | 33487208 | 37 | 26 | 17 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 250 | 125 | 253 attended '07 |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 49052489 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | Need to carry energy from '08 |
| AUSTRALIA | 21262641 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3.25 | 2 | 10 | 5 | Similar to SA, carry energy |
| ITALY | 58126212 | 54 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 26 | 12 | 25 | 18 | France, Italy & Germany are strong supporters. How can we increase attendance? |
| FRANCE | 64057792 | 43 | 18 | 16 | 9 | 21.5 | 10 | 20 | 15 | |
| JAPAN | 127078679 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 10.25 | 8 | 25 | 18 | Japan is same distance as Europe with large tech population. |
| GERMANY | 82329758 | 50 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 21.25 | 11 | 20 | 15 | |
| SOUTH KOREA | 48508972 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 20 | SK is like Japan only hungrier |
| UNITED KINGDOM | 61113205 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 12.5 | 10 | 25 | 15 | Why is UK so under-represented? |
| SWITZERLAND | 7604467 | 10.3 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 10.3 | 10 | 20 | 12 | |
| SPAIN | 40525002 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 30 | 12 | Should carry energy from 2010 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 4213418 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 7.25 | 1 | 15 | 2 | Definite Kiwi interest. Need to bolster |
| NETHERLANDS | 16715999 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 10 | Why doesn't Dutch like SA? |
| NORWAY | 4660539 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 7 | |
| BELGIUM | 10414336 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 7.75 | 5 | 10 | 6 | |
| SWEDEN | 9059651 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 5.75 | 4 | 12 | 6 | |
| BRAZIL | 198739269 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 | 30 | 12 | Brazil is another hungry hot spot |
| AUSTRIA | 8210281 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | |
| NAMIBIA | 2108665 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| INDONESIA | 240271522 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| ROMANIA | 22215421 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| CZECH REPUBLIC | 10211904 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | |
| PORTUGAL | 10707924 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.25 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| FINLAND | 5250275 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3.25 | 2 | 5 | 3 | |
| POLAND | 38482919 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| CHINA | 1338612968 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1.25 | 0 | 25 | 10 | China is big on Geospatial |
| NEW CALEDONIA | 227436 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| TAIWAN | 22974347 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.25 | 1 | 6 | 2 | |
| MEXICO | 111211789 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.25 | 2 | 30 | 10 | Mexico is very close and hungry |
| Totals | 418 | 1431 | 839 |
Survey
An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.
Formula
A = ((P * I) / (D)) * 1/E
Where
- A = number of attendees from a country
- P = population of a country
- Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented.
- I = Industrialization
- GDP of the country
- HDI may be a better measure... but...
- Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI
- Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI
- 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation
- D = Travel Cost Distance from country
- Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using TravelMath
- Price of airfare in local currency?
- Effort in getting VISA?
- E = Some unknown general economic factor
- FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
- DJIA?
Will this work for States within the USA? Assumes consistency across countries
- Is there some factor for USA/CAN?
Correlating Factors
- Economic Crisis
By Country
- Population
- Industrialization
- GDP as proxy
- Distance
- Local vs. Distant
- What is "local"?
- Number of Code Contributors
- Which projects?
- Should most countries be "ignored"?
- "Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
- "Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
- "Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
- Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%
By Region
- Distance
- Industrialization
- Oddly, Europe
Venue
One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.
In Denver, there are several prospective venues:
- Colorado Convention Center
- Largest space: 5000 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Sheraton
- Largest space: 3000 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Tech Center Marriott
- Largest space: 1500 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Tech Center Hyatt Regency
- Largest space: 1350 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Rennaissance
- Largest space: 1200 people
- Not near light rail
- Sheraton Denver West
- Largest space: 750 people
- New light rail station won't be operational until 2013
- Inverness Hotel and Conference Center
- Largest space: 600 people
- Near light rail
Sponsorship
Sponsors (and exhibitors) like to know how many people they are reaching by investing in the conference.