Difference between revisions of "FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections"
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* A = number of attendees from a country | * A = number of attendees from a country | ||
* P = population of a country | * P = population of a country | ||
| + | ** Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented. | ||
* I = Industrialization | * I = Industrialization | ||
** GDP of the country | ** GDP of the country | ||
| + | ** [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index HDI] may be a better measure... but... | ||
| + | *** Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI | ||
| + | *** Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI | ||
| + | *** 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation | ||
* D = Travel Cost Distance from country | * D = Travel Cost Distance from country | ||
| − | ** Price of airfare in local currency | + | ** Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using [http://www.travelmath.com/flight-distance/from/Rome,+Italy/to/Denver,+CO TravelMath] |
| − | ** Effort in getting VISA | + | ** Price of airfare in local currency? |
| + | ** Effort in getting VISA? | ||
* E = Some unknown general economic factor | * E = Some unknown general economic factor | ||
** FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis | ** FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis | ||
Revision as of 21:54, 2 June 2010
Attendance Projections
"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G.
| + Past FOSS4G data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Country | Local | CAN | USA | Other | Total |
| 2006 | Switzerland | 156 | 37 | 52 | 320 | 565 |
| 2007 | Canada | 253 | 253 | 265 | 203 | 721 |
| 2008 | South Africa | 321 | 17 | 31 | 178 | 547 |
| 2009 | Australia | 218 | 24 | 28 | 166 | 436 |
| 2010 | Spain | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
- Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.
Brain Storming
Survey
An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.
Formula
A = ((P * I) / (D)) * 1/E
Where
- A = number of attendees from a country
- P = population of a country
- Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented.
- I = Industrialization
- GDP of the country
- HDI may be a better measure... but...
- Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI
- Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI
- 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation
- D = Travel Cost Distance from country
- Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using TravelMath
- Price of airfare in local currency?
- Effort in getting VISA?
- E = Some unknown general economic factor
- FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
- DJIA?
Will this work for States within the USA? Assumes consistency across countries
- Is there some factor for USA/CAN?
Correlating Factors
- Economic Crisis
By Country
- Population
- Industrialization
- GDP as proxy
- Distance
- Local vs. Distant
- What is "local"?
- Number of Code Contributors
- Which projects?
- Should most countries be "ignored"?
- "Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
- "Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
- "Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
- Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%
By Region
- Distance
- Industrialization
- Oddly, Europe
Venue
One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.
In Denver, there are several prospective venues:
- Colorado Convention Center
- Largest space: 5000 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Sheraton
- Largest space: 3000 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Tech Center Marriott
- Largest space: 1500 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Tech Center Hyatt Regency
- Largest space: 1350 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Rennaissance
- Largest space: 1200 people
- Not near light rail
- Sheraton Denver West
- Largest space: 750 people
- New light rail station won't be operational until 2013
- Inverness Hotel and Conference Center
- Largest space: 600 people
- Near light rail
Sponsorship
Sponsors (and exhibitors) like to know how many people they are reaching by investing in the conference.