FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections

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Attendance Projections

"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G.

+ Past FOSS4G data
Year Country Local CAN USA Other Total
2006 Switzerland 156 37 52 320 565
2007 Canada 253 253 265 203 721
2008 South Africa 321 17 31 178 547
2009 Australia 218 24 28 166 436
2010 Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
  • Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.


Brain Storming

Guesstimate

The formula (below) doesn't seem to be working out. The identified variables have no correlation to the number of attendees. The best solution would be, on a country-by-country basis, try to guess how many would come.

Survey

An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.

Formula

A = ((P * I) / (D)) * 1/E

Where

  • A = number of attendees from a country
  • P = population of a country
    • Seems to be too many contradictions, e.g., Switzerland is consistently over-represented and Japan under-represented.
  • I = Industrialization
    • GDP of the country
    • HDI may be a better measure... but...
      • Top 10 countries by average attendance (except South Africa) have high GDI
      • Top 20 adds Namibia and Brazil with "lower" HDI
      • 90% of attendees come from high-HDI nations, cannot account for variation
  • D = Travel Cost Distance from country
    • Proxy - air travel distance from largest city to destination (except hosts) using TravelMath
    • Price of airfare in local currency?
    • Effort in getting VISA?
  • E = Some unknown general economic factor
    • FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
    • DJIA?

Will this work for States within the USA? Assumes consistency across countries

  • Is there some factor for USA/CAN?

Correlating Factors

  • Economic Crisis

By Country

  • Population
  • Industrialization
    • GDP as proxy
  • Distance
    • Local vs. Distant
    • What is "local"?
  • Number of Code Contributors
    • Which projects?
  • Should most countries be "ignored"?
    • "Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
    • "Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
    • "Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
  • Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%

By Region

  • Distance
  • Industrialization
  • Oddly, Europe

Venue

One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.

In Denver, there are several prospective venues:

Sponsorship

Sponsors (and exhibitors) like to know how many people they are reaching by investing in the conference.

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