FOSS4G 2011 Denver Attendance Projections
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Attendance Projections
"Accurate" attendance projections are extremely important to the early success of a conference the size of FOSS4G.
+ Past FOSS4G data | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Country | Local | CAN | USA | Other | Total |
2006 | Switzerland | 156 | 37 | 52 | 320 | 565 |
2007 | Canada | 253 | 253 | 265 | 203 | 721 |
2008 | South Africa | 321 | 17 | 31 | 178 | 547 |
2009 | Australia | 218 | 24 | 28 | 166 | 436 |
2010 | Spain | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
- Overall, FOSS4G is a highly "local" event with at least 57% of attendees from the host region and 25% of attendees from the host country.
Brain Storming
Survey
An alternate method would be to use a short survey that is widely publicized. This could generate good numbers for the FOSS4G community but would miss the non-community members.
Formula
A = ((P * I) / (D)) * 1/E
Where
- A = number of attendees from a country
- P = population of a country
- I = Industrialization
- GDP of the country
- D = Travel Cost Distance from country
- Price of airfare in local currency (somewhat intractable, proxy?)
- Effort in getting VISA
- E = Some unknown general economic factor
- FOSS4G 2009 realized very low numbers due to the economic crisis
- DJIA?
Will this work for States within the USA?
Correlating Factors
- Economic Crisis
By Country
- Population
- Industrialization
- GDP as proxy
- Distance
- Local vs. Distant
- What is "local"?
- Number of Code Contributors
- Which projects?
- Should most countries be "ignored"?
- "Top 10" countries provide 75% of attendees
- "Top 20" countries provide 90% of attendees
- "Top 30" countries provide 95% of attendees
- Calculate for the Top 10 and extrapolate as 75%
By Region
- Distance
- Industrialization
- Oddly, Europe
Venue
One of the biggest decisions is what venue to hold the conference. Venues with larger capacities have a higher per-attendee cost. If we can come up with a reasonable range of number of attendees, we can make a better decision about the venue. The availability of a particular venue can also impact dates.
In Denver, there are several prospective venues:
- Colorado Convention Center
- Largest space: 5000 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Sheraton
- Largest space: 3000 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Tech Center Marriott
- Largest space: 1500 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Tech Center Hyatt Regency
- Largest space: 1350 people
- Near light rail
- Denver Rennaissance
- Largest space: 1200 people
- Not near light rail
- Sheraton Denver West
- Largest space: 750 people
- New light rail station won't be operational until 2013
- Inverness Hotel and Conference Center
- Largest space: 600 people
- Near light rail